Variability in the sensitivity among model simulations of permafrost and carbon dynamics in the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009

A significant portion of the large amount of carbon (C) currently stored in soils of the permafrost region in the Northern Hemisphere has the potential to be emitted as the greenhouse gases CO2 and CH4 under a warmer climate. In this study we evaluated the variability in the sensitivity of permafrost and C in recent decades among land surface model simulations over the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009. The 15 model simulations all predict a loss of near-surface permafrost (within 3 m) area over the region, but there are large differences in the magnitude of the simulated rates of loss among the models (0.2 to 58.8 × 103 km2 yr−1). Sensitivity simulations indicated that changes in air temperature largely explained changes in permafrost area, although interactions among changes in other environmental variables also played a role. All of the models indicate that both vegetation and soil C storage together have increased by 156 to 954 Tg C yr−1 between 1960 and 2009 over the permafrost region even though model analyses indicate that warming alone would decrease soil C storage. Increases in gross primary production (GPP) largely explain the simulated increases in vegetation and soil C. The sensitivity of GPP to increases in atmospheric CO2 was the dominant cause of increases in GPP across the models, but comparison of simulated GPP trends across the 1982–2009 period with that of a global GPP data set indicates that all of the models overestimate the trend in GPP. Disturbance also appears to be an important factor affecting C storage, as models that consider disturbance had lower increases in C storage than models that did not consider disturbance. To improve the modeling of C in the permafrost region, there is the need for the modeling community to standardize structural representation of permafrost and carbon dynamics among models that are used to evaluate the permafrost C feedback and for the modeling and observational communities to jointly develop data sets and methodologies to more effectively benchmark models.

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Author McGuire, A. David
Koven, Charles
Lawrence, David M.
Clein, Joy S.
Xia, Jiangyang
Beer, Christian
Burke, Eleanor
Chen, Guangsheng
Chen, Xiaodong
Delire, Christine
Jafarov, Elchin
MacDougall, Andrew H.
Marchenko, Sergey
Nicolsky, Dmitry
Peng, Shushi
Rinke, Annette
Saito, Kazuyuki
Zhang, Wenxin
Alkama, Ramdane
Bohn, Theodore J.
Ciais, Philippe
Decharme, Bertrand
Ekici, Altug
Gouttevin, Isabelle
Hajima, Tomohiro
Hayes, Daniel J.
Ji, Duoying
Krinner, Gerhard
Lettenmaier, Dennis P.
Luo, Yiqi
Miller, Paul A.
Moore, John C.
Romanovsky, Vladimir
Schädel, Christina
Schaefer, Kevin
Schuur, Edward A.G.
Smith, Benjamin
Sueyoshi, Tetsuo
Zhuang, Qianlai
Publisher UCAR/NCAR - Library
Publication Date 2016-07-01T00:00:00
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) Not Assigned
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Topic Category geoscientificInformation
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Metadata Date 2023-08-18T19:00:59.868085
Metadata Record Identifier edu.ucar.opensky::articles:18786
Metadata Language eng; USA
Suggested Citation McGuire, A. David, Koven, Charles, Lawrence, David M., Clein, Joy S., Xia, Jiangyang, Beer, Christian, Burke, Eleanor, Chen, Guangsheng, Chen, Xiaodong, Delire, Christine, Jafarov, Elchin, MacDougall, Andrew H., Marchenko, Sergey, Nicolsky, Dmitry, Peng, Shushi, Rinke, Annette, Saito, Kazuyuki, Zhang, Wenxin, Alkama, Ramdane, Bohn, Theodore J., Ciais, Philippe, Decharme, Bertrand, Ekici, Altug, Gouttevin, Isabelle, Hajima, Tomohiro, Hayes, Daniel J., Ji, Duoying, Krinner, Gerhard, Lettenmaier, Dennis P., Luo, Yiqi, Miller, Paul A., Moore, John C., Romanovsky, Vladimir, Schädel, Christina, Schaefer, Kevin, Schuur, Edward A.G., Smith, Benjamin, Sueyoshi, Tetsuo, Zhuang, Qianlai. (2016). Variability in the sensitivity among model simulations of permafrost and carbon dynamics in the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009. UCAR/NCAR - Library. http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7v69m8d. Accessed 17 July 2025.

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