Context for interpreting equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response from the CMIP6 Earth system models

For the current generation of earth system models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), the range of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS, a hypothetical value of global warming at equilibrium for a doubling of CO2) is 1.8 degrees C to 5.6 degrees C, the largest of any generation of models dating to the 1990s. Meanwhile, the range of transient climate response (TCR, the surface temperature warming around the time of CO2 doubling in a 1% per year CO2 increase simulation) for the CMIP6 models of 1.7 degrees C (1.3 degrees C to 3.0 degrees C) is only slightly larger than for the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. Here we review and synthesize the latest developments in ECS and TCR values in CMIP, compile possible reasons for the current values as supplied by the modeling groups, and highlight future directions. Cloud feedbacks and cloud-aerosol interactions are the most likely contributors to the high values and increased range of ECS in CMIP6.

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Author Meehl, Gerald A.
Senior, Catherine A.
Eyring, Veronika
Flato, Gregory
Lamarque, Jean-Francois
Stouffer, Ronald J.
Taylor, Karl E.
Schlund, Manuel
Publisher UCAR/NCAR - Library
Publication Date 2020-06-24T00:00:00
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Topic Category geoscientificInformation
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Metadata Date 2023-08-18T18:30:37.528766
Metadata Record Identifier edu.ucar.opensky::articles:23465
Metadata Language eng; USA
Suggested Citation Meehl, Gerald A., Senior, Catherine A., Eyring, Veronika, Flato, Gregory, Lamarque, Jean-Francois, Stouffer, Ronald J., Taylor, Karl E., Schlund, Manuel. (2020). Context for interpreting equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response from the CMIP6 Earth system models. UCAR/NCAR - Library. http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d70v8h2w. Accessed 20 July 2025.

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