Identification

Title

Projections of human exposure to dangerous heat in African cities under multiple socioeconomic and climate scenarios

Abstract

Human exposure to dangerous heat, driven by climatic and demographic changes, is increasing worldwide. Being located in hot regions and showing high rates of urban population growth, African cities appear particularly likely to face significantly increased exposure to dangerous heat in the coming decades. We combined projections of urban population under five socioeconomic scenarios-shared socioeconomic pathways-with projections of apparent temperature under three representative concentration pathways in order to explore future exposure to dangerous heat across 173 large African cities. Employing multiple shared socioeconomic pathway and representative concentration pathway combinations, we demonstrated that the aggregate exposure in African cities will increase by a multiple of 20-52, reaching 86-217 billion person-days per year by the 2090s, depending on the scenario. The most exposed cities are located in Western and Central Africa, although several Eastern African cities showed an increase of more than 2,000 times the current level by the 2090s, due to the emergence of dangerous heat conditions combined with steady urban population growth. In most cases, we found future exposure to be predominantly driven by changes in population alone or by concurrent changes in climate and population, with the influence of changes in climate alone being minimal. We also demonstrated that shifting from a high to a low urban population growth pathway leads to a slightly greater reduction in aggregate exposure than shifting from a high to a low emissions pathway (51% vs. 48%). This emphasizes the critical role that socioeconomic development plays in shaping heat-related health challenges in African cities.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7222xvk

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

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South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2019-05-01T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact