Identification

Title

Projections of future summertime ozone over the U.S.

Abstract

We use a regional coupled chemistry-transport model to assess changes in surface ozone over the summertime U.S. between present and a 2050 future time period at high spatial resolution under the A2 climate and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 anthropogenic precursor emission scenarios. Predicted changes in regional climate and globally enhanced ozone are estimated to increase surface ozone over most of the U.S.; the 95th percentile for daily 8 h maximum surface ozone increases from 79 ppb to 87 ppb. The analysis suggests that changes in meteorological drivers likely will add to increasing ozone, but the simulations do not allow separating meteorological feedbacks from that due to enhanced global ozone. Stringent emission controls can counteract these feedbacks; if implemented as in RCP8.5, the 95th percentile for surface ozone is reduced to 55 ppb. A comparison of regional to global model projections shows that the global model is biased high in surface ozone compared to the regional model and compared to observations. On average, both the global and the regional model predict similar future changes but reveal pronounced differences in urban and rural regimes that cannot be resolved at the coarse resolution of the considered global model. This study confirms the key role of emission control strategies in future air quality projections and demonstrates the need for considering degradation of air quality with future climate change in policy making. It also illustrates the need for high-resolution modeling when the objective is to address regional and local air quality or establish links to human health and society.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d73779pt

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2014-05-16T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact