Identification

Title

Detecting climate signals in southern ocean krill growth habitat

Abstract

Climate change is rapidly altering the habitat of Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba), a key species of the Southern Ocean food web. Krill are a critical element of Southern Ocean ecosystems as well as biogeochemical cycles, while also supporting an international commercial fishery. In addition to trends forced by global-scale, human-driven warming, the Southern Ocean is highly dynamic, displaying large fluctuations in surface climate on interannual to decadal timescales. The dual roles of forced climate change and natural variability affecting Antarctic krill habitat, and therefore productivity, complicate interplay of observed trends and contribute to uncertainty in future projections. We use the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) coupled with an empirically derived model of krill growth to detect and attribute trends associated with "forced," human-driven climate change, distinguishing these from variability arising naturally. The forced trend in krill growth is characterized by a poleward contraction of optimal conditions and an overall reduction in Southern Ocean krill habitat. However, the amplitude of natural climate variability is relatively large, such that the forced trend cannot be formally distinguished from natural variability at local scales over much of the Southern Ocean by 2100. Our results illustrate how natural variability is an important driver of regional krill growth trends and can mask the forced trend until late in the 21st century. Given the ecological and commercial global importance of krill, this research helps inform current and future Southern Ocean krill management in the context of climate variability and change.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7x92fq5

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2021-06-15T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact