Threat by marine heatwaves to adaptive large marine ecosystems in an eddy-resolving model
Marine heatwaves (MHWs), episodic periods of abnormally high sea surface temperature, severely affect marine ecosystems. Large marine ecosystems (LMEs) cover similar to 22% of the global ocean but account for 95% of global fisheries catches. Yet how climate change affects MHWs over LMEs remains unknown because such LMEs are confined to the coast where low-resolution climate models are known to have biases. Here, using a high-resolution Earth system model and applying a 'future threshold' that considers MHWs as anomalous warming above the long-term mean warming of sea surface temperatures, we find that future intensity and annual days of MHWs over the majority of the LMEs remain higher than in the present-day climate. Better resolution of ocean mesoscale eddies enables simulation of more realistic MHWs than low-resolution models. These increases in MHWs under global warming pose a serious threat to LMEs, even if resident organisms could adapt fully to the long-term mean warming.
document
https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7639t8z
eng
geoscientificInformation
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publication
2016-01-01T00:00:00Z
publication
2022-02-03T00:00:00Z
Copyright author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
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