Identification

Title

A probabilistic climatology-based analogue intensity forecast scheme for tropical cyclones

Abstract

In this article, we develop an objective probabilistic climatology-based intensity forecast (PCIF) scheme for tropical cyclones (TCs) over the northwestern Pacific region based on data from all TCs that occurred in the region between 1981 and 2010. The PCIF scheme has a forecast period of 120 h at 6-hourly intervals and was developed using eight persistence predictors: the latitude and longitude of the TC centre, the initial minimum central pressure (PMIN) and its change during the last 12 h, the TC movement direction within the last 24 h, the Julian day of the initial time, the life span of the TC between the initial time and its first recording in the observations, and the underlying surface conditions at the TC centre. The PCIF was independently tested for all TCs over the northwestern Pacific from 2011 to 2013. The mean absolute errors of its ensemble mean predictions for PMIN were 8.0, 12.5, 15.2, 17.0 and 17.2 hPa at 24, 48, 72, 96 and 120 h, respectively. Comparisons with the Tropical Cyclone Statistical Prediction, a climatological baseline approach used by the China Meteorological Administration to assess the skill of TC intensity forecasts, indicated the PCIF has significant prediction skill for lead times of 12-48 h. The PCIF probabilistic intensity predictions had better performance for severe or dying TCs at most lead times, and for most categories at short lead times. The PCIF was also found to perform better than the output of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Ensemble Prediction System in the probabilistic prediction of intensity at lead times shorter than 72 h.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d78c9xzj

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-07-01T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact