Identification

Title

Predicting the Atlantic multidecadal variability from initialized simulations

Abstract

In contrast to dominant interannual time-scale variability in other ocean basins, the leading observed mode variability in the Atlantic is characterized as a basinwide seesaw-like sea surface temperature variability between the North and South Atlantic on a multidecadal time scale (approximately 60-80 years), known as the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV). AMV has been identified as a key driver for climate shifts that occurred in the mid-1960s and late 1990s. Here we attempt to predict the summer AMV by analyzing decadal prediction experiments from two climate models. Results show that these climate models with proper initialization do a better job than uninitialized historical runs, and are capable of predicting the observed AMV time evolution. Our models predict that the AMV will be in a neutral to slightly negative phase, leading to a warm-dry trend over western Europe and North Africa and a cold-wet trend (cold relative to the warming trend) over southeastern China and Indochina in the next few years.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7vm4gds

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2019-12-01T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact