Identification

Title

Usefulness of ensemble forecasts from NCEP Climate Forecast System in sub-seasonal to intra-annual forecasting

Abstract

Typically, sub-seasonal to intra-annual climate forecasts are based on ensemble mean (EM) predictions. The EM prediction provides only a part of the information available from the ensemble forecast. Here we test the null hypothesis that the observations are randomly distributed about the EM predictions using a new metric that quantifies the distance between the EM predictions from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) and the observations represented by CFSv2 Reanalysis. The null hypothesis cannot be rejected in this study. Hence, we argue that the higher order statistics such as ensemble standard deviation are also needed to describe the forecast. We also show that removal of systematic errors that are a function of the forecast initialization month and lead time is a necessary pre-processing step. Finally, we show that CFSv2 provides useful ensemble climate forecasts from 0 to 9 month lead time in several regions.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7fn1757

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2014-05-28T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact