Identification

Title

Limited mitigation potential of forestation under a high emissions scenario: Results from multi-model and single model ensembles.

Abstract

Forestation is a major component of future long-term emissions reduction and CO2 removal strategies, but the viability of carbon stored in vegetation under future climates is highly uncertain. We analyze the results from seven CMIP6 models for a combined scenario with high fossil fuel emissions (from SSP5-8.5) and forest expansion (from SSP1-2.6) which has similar to 4.8% increase in global total forest cover relative to 2015. This scenario aims to demonstrate the ability of forestation strategies to mitigate climate change under continued increasing CO2 emissions and includes the potential impacts of increased CO2 concentration and a warming climate on vegetation growth. The model intercomparison shows that forestation as a CO2 removal strategy has limited impact on global climate under a high global warming scenario, despite generating a substantial cumulative carbon sink of 10-60 Pg C over the period 2015-2100. Using a single model ensemble, we show that there are local increases in warm extremes in response to forestation associated with decreases in the number of cool days. Furthermore, we find evidence of a shift in the global carbon balance, whereby increased carbon storage on land of similar to 25 Pg C by 2100 associated with forestation has a concomitant decrease in the carbon uptake by the ocean due to reduced atmospheric CO2 concentrations.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7x06c5k

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2023-12-01T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact