Identification

Title

A new verification approach? Using coupled natural-human models to evaluate the impact of forecast errors on evacuations

Abstract

In addition to measuring forecast accuracy in terms of errors in a tropical system's forecast track and other meteorological characteristics, it is important to measure the impact of those errors on society. With this in mind, the authors designed a coupled natural-human modeling framework with high-level representations of the natural hazard (hurricane), the human system (information flow, evacuation decisions), the built environment (road infrastructure), and connec-tions between elements (forecasts and warning information, traffic). Using the model, this article begins exploring how tropical cyclone forecast errors impact evacuations and, in doing so, builds toward the development of new verification approaches. Specifically, the authors implement track errors representative of 2007 and 2022, and create situations with unexpected rapid intensifica-tion and/or rapid onset, and evaluate their impact on evacuations across real and hypothetical forecast scenarios (e.g., Hurricane Irma, Hurricane Dorian making landfall across east Florida). The results provide first-order evidence that 1) reduced forecast track errors across the 2007-22 period translate to improvements in evacuation outcomes across these cases and 2) unexpected rapid intensification and/or rapid onset scenarios can reduce evacuation rates, and increase traffic, across the most impacted areas. In exploring these relationships, the results demonstrate how experiments with coupled natural-human models can offer a societally relevant complement to traditional metrics of forecast accuracy. In doing so, this work points toward further development of natural-human models and associated methodologies to address these types of questions and improve forecast verification across the weather enterprise.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7k64p25

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

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keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

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Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2023-06-01T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

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Conformity

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version of format

Constraints related to access and use

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Use constraints

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact