Comparison of equilibrium climate sensitivity estimates from slab ocean, 150‐year, and longer simulations
We compare equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) estimates from pairs of long (>= 800-year) control and abruptly quadrupled CO(2)simulations with shorter (150- and 300-year) coupled atmosphere-ocean simulations and slab ocean models (SOMs). Consistent with previous work, ECS estimates from shorter coupled simulations based on annual averages for years 1-150 underestimate those from SOM (-8% +/- 13%) and long (-14% +/- 8%) simulations. Analysis of only years 21-150 improved agreement with SOM (-2% +/- 14%) and long (-8% +/- 10%) estimates. Use of pentadal averages for years 51-150 results in improved agreement with long simulations (-4% +/- 11%). While ECS estimates from current generation U.S. models based on SOM and coupled annual averages of years 1-150 range from 2.6 degrees C to 5.3 degrees C, estimates based longer simulations of the same models range from 3.2 degrees C to 7.0 degrees C. Such variations between methods argues for caution in comparison and interpretation of ECS estimates across models.
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2016-01-01T00:00:00Z
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2020-08-28T00:00:00Z
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