Identification

Title

A 1-10 day ensemble forecasting scheme for the major river basins of Bangladesh: Forecasting severe floods of 2003-2007

Abstract

This paper describes a fully automated scheme that has provided calibrated 1–10-day ensemble river discharge forecasts and predictions of severe flooding of the Brahmaputra and Ganges Rivers as they flow into Bangladesh; it has been operational since 2003. The Bangladesh forecasting problem poses unique challenges because of the frequent life-threatening flooding of the country and because of the absence of upstream flow data from India means that the Ganges and Brahmaputra basins must be treated as if they are ungauged. The meteorological–hydrological forecast model is a hydrologic multimodel initialized by NASA and NOAA precipitation products, whose states and fluxes are forecasted forward using calibrated European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ensemble prediction system products, and conditionally postprocessed to produce calibrated probabilistic forecasts of river discharge at the entrance points of the Ganges and Brahmaputra into Bangladesh. Forecasts with 1–10-day horizons are presented for the summers of 2003–07. Objective verification shows that the forecast system significantly outperforms both a climatological and persistence forecast at all lead times. All severe flooding events were operationally forecast with significant probability at the 10-day horizon, including the extensive flooding of the Brahmaputra in 2004 and 2007, with the latter providing advanced lead-time warnings for the evacuation of vulnerable residents.

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document

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http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d76t0nx7

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Dataset language

eng

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geoscientificInformation

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title

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publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

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publication

effective date

2010-06-01T00:00:00Z

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Copyright 2010 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be "fair use" under Section 107 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Law (17 USC, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the Society's permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form on servers, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statements, requires written permission or license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policies, available from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or amspubs@ametsoc.org. Permission to place a copy of this work on this server has been provided by the AMS. The AMS does not guarantee that the copy provided here is an accurate copy of the published work.

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contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

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pointOfContact

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