Identification

Title

A new approach to testing forecast predictive accuracy

Abstract

The Diebold-Mariano test for predictive accuracy has been used widely and adapted for economic forecasts, but has not seen much activity in weather forecast verification. The technique is applied to both simulated verification sets as well as weather data at eight stations in Utah, and a loss function based on dynamic time warping (DTW) is used. Results of the simulation experiment show that the DTW technique can be useful if timing errors are the concern. Real test cases demonstrate the difficulty in automating some of the more advanced methods proposed here, but also show the utility in even the most basic test, which is an improvement over similar tests that do not account for temporal and/or contemporaneous correlation.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7pr7x6f

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2015-07-01T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact